Irrational Exuberance

In their delight at what seems to be an impending victory, the Democrats must not lose sight of the need to implement a successful policy agenda. Much of the Democrats' success has to do with Republican weaknesses rather than their own strengths. If they retake the house, the Democrats should try to avoid repeating past mistakes. The Democrats have swept to victory because of GOP misdeeds before. They clobbered the Republicans in post-Watergate midterms in 1974 and won the Presidency two years later. With control of the executive and a solid legislative majority, the Democrats had the power to make major changes and pass almost any law they desired. But Carter's presidency and the Democrats' legislative agenda were abject failures. In 1980, Ronald Reagan was elected in a landslide despite the lingering stench of the scandal that had so damaged his party only a few years before.

Voters' memories are short. Base Republican voters enraged by the Foley and Abramoff scandals who stay away from the polls this November to "teach the GOP a lesson" will be eager to forgive the party as soon as possible. Democratic failures - especially in differentiating themselves from their cross-aisle rivals - will only accellerate this process of reconciliation and further demoralize the Left. If they don't want to cede control right back in 2008, the Democrats will have to work hard to prove they can do better than the House's previous occupants. Ironically, that will mean working with Republicans, including the President, to avoid vetoes or build veto-proof majorities for important legislation.

The Democrats cannot rely on continued GOP incompetence and scandal to preserve their grip on congress. Republican failures may well get a Democrat into the Speaker's chair. Only Democratic successes will keep one there.